Expert Political Judgment
Categories: Politics & Social Sciences
In this 2005 book, psychologist Philip E. Tetlock asks how good experts are at predicting political events, and how we can know. Tetlock compares experts' forecasts with those of informed amateurs and simple extrapolation, and finds that specialists often do little better and are rarely held accountable. Using Isaiah Berlin's contrast between foxes and hedgehogs, he argues that foxes, who draw on many ideas and adapt as events change, forecast better than hedgehogs, who rely on one big idea.
Recommended by 4 people
- Patrick Collison
- Michael J. Mauboussin
- Marc Andreessen
- Vinod Khosla: “Recommend reading: Expert Political Judgement or Future Babble”