Superforecasting
By Philip E. Tetlock, Dan Gardner
Categories: Business & Money
Most people, experts included, are poor forecasters: Philip E. Tetlock's 2005 study found that expert predictions were only slightly better than chance. Yet some people show real foresight, and this book, written with Dan Gardner, asks what makes them so good and whether the skill can be taught. Published in 2015, it draws on the Good Judgment Project, a government-funded forecasting tournament in which thousands of ordinary volunteers predicted world events. The best of them, the superforecasters, beat prediction markets and even intelligence analysts with classified information.
Recommended by 5 people
- Shane Parrish: “Attentive readers will note this is the second time I’ve read this book this month. I’m interviewing the author for The Knowledge Project soon”
- Sam Hinkie
- Michael J. Mauboussin
- Alexis Ohanian
- Keith Rabois: “Eagerly anticipating this book. Excited to start reading.”