Thinking in Bets

By Annie Duke

Categories: Business & Money

Was Pete Carroll's pass call at the end of Super Bowl XLIX really a terrible decision, or a good one with a bad outcome? Former professional poker player Annie Duke, a World Series of Poker bracelet winner, argues that we constantly confuse the two. Since luck and hidden information shape every result, Duke suggests thinking in bets: how sure am I, and what are the odds? Drawing on poker, business, sports, and politics, she offers tools for getting comfortable with uncertainty and making better decisions.

Recommended by 7 people

• Seth Godin: “Annie Duke knows how to make decisions. You should too.”
• Michael J. Mauboussin
• Max Levchin
• Marc Andreessen
• Jason Fried: “I have read Thinking in Bets. Really enjoyed that part especially.”
• Howard S. Marks
• Shane Parrish: “, which comes out this week. I was lucky to have an advance copy. I read this in preparation for having Annie Duke on the podcast. Anyone interested in making better decisions can learn a lot from this book”